As the violence dwindles in Southern Iraq, the United States is ostensibly pleased with the performance of Iraqi forces in dealing with the recent Sadrist uprising. The Iraqi government is ostensibly pleased with their ability to respond with appropriate force and to stand up on their own in this crisis.
I said ostensibly. The truth of the matter is the real winner of the recent events in Southern Iraq is Iran - although again, it is ostensibly Muqtada al-Sadr.
Yes, Iraqi government forces responded well and the results of unequaled training, along with a more ecumenical devotion to a unified nation, is evident in the performance of Iraqi forces - although they still have a way to go. Iran gaining victory has nothing to do with military prowess, nor with the willingness of Iraqis to defend Iraq’s emergence as a viable government.
Al-Sadr himself has acknowledged there are many groups which have split off from his personal control. While he is in Iraq, speaking as Muqtada al-Sadr, his influence is limited - much like a local mob captain. However, you must note that he is in Iran now for some “special religious training”. Though his followers have not seen him for many weeks, not only does he have the ability to influence their actions on a broad scale, he has the ability to influence the activities of many of those “break away” groups as well. His followers understand that his presence and training in Iran is not a coincidence. In a theocracy, an invitation to take special religious training is a huge, ostentatious vote of confidence. The ability of al-Sadr - little more than an upstart at the beginning of this war - to stop the violence by issuing a proclamation is a large feat. Al-Sadr has definitely been given a big Shi’ite promotion.
Iran was able to gain victory because the power of the Iranian theocracy, with al-Sadr as the conduit, was the sole reason for the ending of hostilities. The fighting in Basra is over because Tehran wished it to be.
