What if the GOP primaries take a post pattern aspect and become drawn out well beyond giga Tuesday? To my way of thinking it is not a bad thing because I think we need to “shake out” the bugs in this race anyway. Understandably, this  is because I view the current front runners as a sure sign the GOP is headed too far left and I am not comfortable with that. the most “popular” candidates are not what I am looking for in a president.

Until today, I thought I might be alone in my opinion of the candidates in general and specifically about my thoughts on this year’s early primaries.

If you think Iowa’s wacky caucus rules make their choice unrepresentative, if you think Wyoming’s caucus rules were too strict, if you think the independents of New Hampshire and the crossover Democrats of Michigan might make those states’ choices somehow invalid… don’t worry. You’ll get your say (well, not all of you, but a lot of you). The Super Duper Tuesday states will be huge, and the Maryland-Virginia-D.C. votes a week later might even make a difference.

Whoever the Republican nominee is, he won’t be a reflection of the quirky preferences of the early states. He’ll have fought and won over a wide variety of political terrain.

The fact that we still have no clear front runner to me negates all of the national polls and solidifies the fact that it is still any body’s race. It also vindicates what I said earlier about the early primaries this election cycle.

Finally, to my thinking, the longer the race goes without a clear front runner emerging, the more probable a Thompson nomination becomes. People are going to get sick of these other baubles as the conservative clear-coat wears off.

Blue Team - Bi-Racial and Bi-Sexual? AND Already with the recounts!

As we learned last week, Hillary Clinton won big in New Hampshire, flummoxing the polls and pollsters. Most of them have had excuses of one flavor or another, but the bottom lines seems to have been, we are not good at Bi-racial polling, nor bi-sexual polling. In the mean time, Hillary has made several statements along racial lines that have not sat well with black voters. The word on the street is there is a lot more faith in Bill on race than there is in Hillary.

After shaking up her staff and bringing in the old-school race baiters, you can bet this campaign is going to get messy fast. The question is will Hillary ruin their chances of a win in November just to get the party’s nomination?Barak Obama has a message for skeptical blacks in South Carolina - “Whites are ready for a black president”.  This is something we pointed out here last month. The big question is can Barak fend off the big hit campaign due to be launched against him by a large pro-Hillary group? South Carolina might be more contentious than anticipated. With several activists bringing out the race card, as well as trying to catch Barak riding dirty on his college drug use, he has to come out strong on the issues to get past what we think is simply a very nasty speed bump.  Kerry endorsed Obama though - did it help?

John Edwards could be facing Barak alone, unless Hillary can bring out another win. This would certainly change the dynamic of the race. We think there would be a lot less talk of race from the MSM, if there was also not a sex issue as well.

Dishonorable mention goes to Dennis Kucinich, who first demanded a recount in New Hampshire and then sued to be included in the debates in Nevada. He doesn’t seem to understand he has already been voted off the island of Wannabedaprezi!

Red Team - No Clear Front Runner!

Rudy Giuliani wants your prayers and he really needs them right now. South Carolina is not going to be friendly to him and Michigan is not going to be nice either. With cash problems and staffers going without pay, his campaign doesn’t have much steam left.

Mitt Romney needs a Michigan win to remain viable and he’ll probably get it, although the McCain surge could bump him into a second place finish. We’ll know soon enough! I don’t expect him to drop out before Super Tuesday, as he has enough money to stay in as long as he wants. Romney is also getting a lot of support from Leftists, according to Daily Kos - the idea being that Romney loses against Hillary and Obama in all polls thus far.

John McCain is still surging and it is paying off. As he gains popularity, he also becomes a magnet for abuse from the GOP base. take into account also that GOP leaders are not supporting him. Romney has garnered a lot more support from party leaders and congressional leaders, while McCain is gaining on popularity chatter. I still don’t believe McCain is going to get the nomination.

Mike Huckabee is losing fast. His campaign is in disarray and his true colors are starting to show. As others attack his policy - which is natural when you become the front runner - he began making his attacks more personal. As he slides in all the national polls, we are hearing a lot less news about him. I think he is close to being done.

Fred Thompson is still rising and expected to finish strong in South Carolina. In our minds, he does not need a win in any of the early primaries. As long as he can keep his campaign afloat money-wise, he can stick through to super-Tuesday and find out what America really thinks. There is a big difference between the primaries elections and the feeling the waters early primaries. His message is resonating well, as his campaign gets better at communicating. There is a rumor that a presidential ticket is shaping up with Fred. How does “Thompson - Watts ‘08″ sound?

Ron Paul is still in the race and we predict this will continue as long as the money holds out, despite poor results and not so subtle hints from the field that his policy ideas are crazy. We predict he will struggle to remain viable until just shy of Giga Tuesday and then swing his support to no one.

——————–

Today the Democrats debate in Nevada and the Michigan primaries are today!

January 19th - Nevada caucuses!

Stay Tuned and watch the drama unfold! Who is next to leave the island of Wannapedaprezi? Find out what happens the next time - “The tribe has spoken”!

Blue Team - Joe Who?

Hillary Clinton has lost a lot of favor among Democrats, losing to Obama in Iowa and probably losing to Obama and Edwards today in New Hampshire. She will win Michigan, as the other candidates asked to be removed from the ballot when Michigan changed the date of their primaries to earlier in the season.

Yesterday, Hillary had a human moment as she teared up talking about the grueling campaign schedule and her passion to create change in America. Some think this was calculated to show her humanity. Others think it was calculated to allow her an excuse to back out later. We think it was simply Hillary bending to too much pressure and that this is her “Dean Scream”.

We will find out son enough!

Barak Obama has got everything going his way right now. By our analysis, he will sweep most of the early primaries and will probably get the Democratic nomination. The problem so far is, Barak Obama has not come out with anything definitive - this is starting to look like 2004 all over again. What exactly is he going to change - that he is able to change?

John Edwards seems to have gotten a springboard from Clinton not doing so well. he is still in the race, but his days are numbered by our estimates. We predict Edwards will put his considerable base behind Obama sometime shortly after Michigan.

Red Team - Who is the real conservative?

Rudy Giuliani has shot his wad. No, he doesn’t have a new mistress - that we know of - but he is not generating the excitement he once was. We liken him to one of those tourist luaus. It’s very beautiful in pictures and exciting when you get there - but the drinks are watery, the food is dry and bland, oh and you have to go get it yourself.

Mitt Romney is still polling well and performing well on stage. However, the veneer is rubbing off, and we are starting to see the blue under the new coat or red paint. Romney recently mentioned how he is a big proponent of mandates on health insurance. Yet, studies of his health plan in Massachusetts show they are becoming a fiduciary nightmare. We predict Americans will wake up and prompt a Romney break up.  Romney did take Wyoming though.

John McCain is the man of the hour, but no one knows it just yet. It looks like he is set to win New Hampshire and he might do well in South Carolina. There are a lot of people in the Republican party pushing John McCain’s name more forcefully now. We’ll have to see if the mustang overtakes some of the thoroughbreds - they are known for their endurance. If McCain is anything, he’s enduring.

Fred Thompson is reportedly on a rise in the field. We don’t predict a strong finish in New Hampshire and neither does Fred. Fred has made very clear statements regarding his policy and has not been required to clarify his statements, unlike every other Republican candidate. While most of the other candidates have been reported by Fact Check on numerous occasions as having distorted or outright lied about their positions, Fred has simply pointed to his legislative record.

Fred’s campaign is the most dynamic in this race from the standpoint of the possibilities his campaign represent versus the actual poll results.

Mike Huckabee saw a big surge leading up to Iowa and it carried him through that early primary in good position. Yet, recent questions have emerged about his policy stances as Governor of Arkansas. The cost of popularity in this race will always bring with it a greater degree of scrutiny - watch for Huckabee to place second in New Hampshire or a very close third. Has anyone had a Huckaburger yet?

Ron Paul is still in the race and we predict this will continue as long as the money holds out, despite poor results and not so subtle hints from the field that his policy ideas are crazy. We predict he will struggle to remain viable until just shy of Giga Tuesday and then swing his support to no one.

——————–

Tthe New Hampshire Primary Elections are today!

Michigan primaries on January 15th!

Stay Tuned and watch the drama unfold! Who is next to leave the island of Wannapedaprezi? Find out what happens the next time - “The tribe has spoken”!

On Redstate - read the analysis and conclusion by Pejman Yousefzadeh. Here is a snippet:

My emphasis in this and other writings when it comes to political discussions has been on policy. I want a candidate who espouses small government, federalism, free markets, free trade, a brave and unabashed message of capitalism and consequential, weighty and creative solutions to the many foreign policy and national security dilemmas facing the United States.

Read the whole story>>>> 

Fredstate?

Yeah - it’s like that.

Analyzing Ron Paul

This data about the Ron Paul 2008 presidential campaign was compiled over the course of a months-long, peer-reviewed scientific study of finances, poll results, Web 2.0, and other pertinent data. (To scale.)

I am a FredHead - it’s simple really. I’m tired.

I’m tired of flip-flop candidates - they are for a path to citizenship, using a delusional guest worker program no more enforceable than the 14 guest worker programs already in existence. They are for extending benefits and tuition rights to illegal immigrants. They shield people here illegally from prosecution and deportation. Then, when they need Republican votes - they have had their “come to Jesus” and promise to be good boys on illegal immigration. McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee.

I’m tired of weak tea rhetoric about why we need more federal government intervention in our lives. Whether it be abortion, education, or government health care. I am tired of politicians taking away my community’s voice in the debate. McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee.

I’m tired of outright lies to get my vote. Rudy - you are pro-choice, anti-gun, and supported liberal Mario Cuomo instead of someone from your own party. Stop telling people how conservative you are. McCain - you are not a conservative. You hyphenate your name with congress’ most liberal member to open the borders. You support embryonic stem cell research with our tax dollars, you think affirmative action is ok. Mitt - you’ve been successful in probably the most liberal state in the Union. This is mostly because you have spent years pandering to the left. Stop telling people how conservative you are. Huckabee - Conservative, Tax Friendly, tough on illegal immigration, right? No, Mike is a tax-raising, advocate of illegal immigrant college tuition with no foreign policy experience.

In direct contrast - Fred been consistent on:

• abortion
• prioritizing the national debt
• balanced budget as a constitutional issue
• ending discriminatory selection practices for jobs, school, etc.
• commerce clause is not a federal regulations blank check
• tort reform
• school choice
• oil dependency and alternative fuels
• Free trade
• foreign policy beneficial to American interests
• 2nd amendment
• national security
• illegal immigration
• social security
• tax reform
• welfare and welfare overhaul

If the question is who to vote for in 2008, the only clear answer is Fred Thompson. You boys talk Fred’s talk, but you can’t walk Fred’s walk. I’m tired of watching you try.

Fact Check did an analysis of the recent Republican debates in Des Moines, Iowa. Of all the (serious) candidates, only Fred Thompson was not listed as having made some stupid declaration or misleading statement.

Some of the larger misstatements were:

John McCain - I can make the US oil independent in 5 years.

Mike Huckabee - I have the most impressive education record of all the candidates

Mitt Romney - Teen pregnancy programs are not working

Rudy Giuliani - a big federal tax cut would produce “a major boost in revenues for the government”.

I know, I know - Allen Keyes is the only man who knows what is right for America. Ron Paul is hope for America. Elvis is alive; the aliens finally returned him. OJ is innocent (again).

2:10: Next question: What spending cuts are needed?

On Fox News they’re showing Frank Luntz’s focus group dials. Ron Paul talking about closing military bases made those lines drop like a rock.

2:20: Next question: Who’s hurt the most by our taxes?

Fred wants to be in Mitt’s situation where he doesn’t have to worry about taxes. He then quipped to Romney, “You’re getting to be a good actor.”

2:26: Next question: What changes should be made with NAFTA?

Fred notes free trade is the backbone of our economy. Fred will fight for fair agreements with other nations to open markets.

2:29: Fred gets 30 seconds of free time. National security is paramount. When our worst enemies are facing us we need serious leadership.

2:32: Next question: Climate change.

Fred isn’t in the mood for “hand shows.” He demanded a moment to actually discuss the issue. The liberal moderator refused to give him time, so he refused to bother with her.

2:51: Next question: What’s the biggest impediment to education?

Fred declares the National Education Association is the biggest obstacle. The teachers union is stopping parents from getting more and better choices to educate their kids.

Let me remind you Mike Huckabee has been endorsed by the New Hampshire NEA.

Tancredo scolded Huckabee for trying to dictate what local schools should teach. Huckabee responded by talking about a bully pulpit.

2:53: Next question: What would you do in your first year as President?

Ron Paul would bring the troops home from Iraq. Luntz’s dialers don’t approve. Fred wouldn’t do that. He wants victory and knows our troops can do that.

Fred says he’d tell the American people the truth about the threats facing our country. He’d tell the public that we have to fix our entitlements and stop judges from getting out of control.

In the comments Brian Walters comments:

Every time Fred speaks the dials go way up!!!!

On the other hand, Huckabee is doing TERRIBLE!!!!

3:09: Next question: Iran and intelligence.

Fred calls it the best question asked today. We’re paying the price for our poor intelligence. We have to rebuild it from the bottom up and get help from other nations. A President can’t let a piece of paper solely determine their decisions.

3:23: The debate ends and the analysis begins. How do you think Fred did?

3:31: Marc Ambinder on Fred’s performance:

Fred Thompson was smart, funny, irascible and consistent, and probably helped his standing here. He even got in a good dig at Romney.

Chuck Todd thought it was a great debate for Fred:

Frankly, the candidate who had the best afternoon I think was Fred Thompson. This was easily his best debate performance and he seemed to shine in this subdued format.

3:35: John Hawkins declares Fred the winner too:

Winner: Fred Thompson. Good substance, good personality, and his I won’t raise my hand for an answer question reminded me of Reagan say “I paid for this microphone.” Fred definitely won.

And add Jim Geraghty to the list:

Winner: Thompson. Don’t know if it will be enough, but he ought to get at least a little bump out of this. The moment he basically told the moderator where she could stick her “show of hands” question – well, I was inspired.

3:44: Philip Klein is another who declared Fred the winner:

Fred Thompson was the only candidate who stood out. He was funny, charming, and peppy. Here was a guy who wasn’t afraid to speak hard truths, and who displayed knowledge of the policy issues–especially on entitlements. But the moment of the debate, the moment that will be talked about should he defy expectations and go on to win the nomination, was when he refused to raise his hand at the behest of the moderator. This demonstrated conviction, showed he was able to stand up for his principles, that he was a man who valued substance, a leader rather than a follower, and somebody who is running a different kind of campaign. In short, today Thompson was everything that conservatives had hoped they’d be getting when he announced his candidacy.

And From Right Wing News:

2:08: Fred hit entitlements. Nice, but not splashy.

2:09: Being able to watch the focus group numbers while they talk is pretty neat. I like that feature, which I’m getting on Fox.

2:09: Decent answer from Mitt.

2:10: Huckabee’s answer is mildly disturbing because it suggests he wants to make us self-sufficient.

2:10: McCain will make us oil independent in 5 years? That’s complete and utter bunk.

2:18: Fred is so right about Social Security and Medicare. I like his answer. Bam. No, Warren Buffet, we can’t take care of their Medicare.

2:20: Fair tax, which Huckabee is relentlessly flogging, is unpassable. So, why talk it up so much?

2:20 Mitt gives the politically correct answer.

2:21: Fred gets the first funny line of the debate off tonight. He’s doing really well.

2:27: McCain is a huge free trader who wants to open markets. Good answer.

2:28: NAFTA from Rudy. Rudy loves and defends it. Good. We do want to embrace a global market. How much can we sell to these people as they come out of poverty? Very good answer from Rudy.

2:29: Fred Thompson: Mexico better think about criticizing us when they realize how good NAFTA has been for them. Too many people close their markets to us. We can’t stand for that. Really good answer.

2:31: Ron Paul is screwing this up. He should be talking resume instead of going on another rant. I am Ron Paul, a former doctor and I served in the military, yada, yada. He wasted his opportunity.

2:38 Rankings so far.

Thompson
Romney
Giuliani
McCain
Hunter
Tancredo
Huckabee
Paul
Keyes

2:50: The good news for Ron Paul tonight: he won’t be giving the worst performance for once.

2:51: Ok, tax credits for teachers, encourage private school, home schooling. Good answer on education.

2:51: Bam! Fred slaps the teacher’s union! Rock on! They bring in millions to fight choice. Inner city people need a chance to have choice. Let’s give choice to everyone. Another really good answer.

Summary: This was a very well run, very serious debate. CNN should ask these people how to run a debate.

Winner: Fred Thompson. Good substance, good personality, and his “I won’t raise my hand for an answer” question reminded me of Reagan saying, “I paid for this microphone.” Fred definitely won.

Top Tier Loser: Mike Huckabee. The fast format appeared to take him off of his game. He was very flat.

Rankings from bottom to top.

Alan Keyes: Came off as mildly nuts.
Ron Paul: Probably happy Keyes was there to make him look more reasonable.
Mike Huckabee: Very flat.
Duncan Hunter: He did Ok.
Tom Tancredo: He gets better every debate.
John McCain: Very average performance from a guy who usually does better.
Rudy Giuliani: Solid, but not spectacular.
Mitt Romney: He got back on his game without the frequent attacks.
Fred Thompson: His best performance yet.

Check how high the lines go on the charts as Fred Talks:

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The Fred File liveblogged the Presidential debate, with additional video blogging from Mary Matalin:

And Fred Thompson hit a home run today…

Jim Geraghty:

Asked for a show of hands on global warming, Thompson finally stands up. “I’m not doing any hand shows today.” A few folks applaud.

Fred: You gonna give me a minute to answer it?

Moderator: No.

Fred: Then I’m not gonna answer it.

Chuck Todd:

Fred Thompson is easily having his best debate; the format suits him well; it’s very issue oriented and doesn’t allow for too many back-n-forths and gives Fred a chance to shine. Contrary to his actor background, the guy loves to get into the weeds on certain issues and this debate format is working well for him.

Rich Lowry:

Judging by This Debate So Far Romney’s main threat in Iowa should be Fred Thompson.

Mark Hemingway:

Great Answer by Thompson…about injecting more choice and market forces into education. Seriously, it’s like Thompson came to the debate in Des Moines today to do two things: Kick butt and chew gum. And it appears he’s all out of gum.

Jonathan Martin:

In an obvious effort to diminish Huck, Fred gets off a line he wants Iowans to chew on in the weeks ahead:

Citing a face-off with America’s enemies, Thompson asks: “Who do you want sitting on our side representing you?

“That ought to be who you elect president.”

Marc Ambinder:

Fred Thompson was smart, funny, irascible and consistent, and probably helped his standing here. He even got in a good dig at Romney.

Philip Klein:

Fred Thompson was the only candidate who stood out. He was funny, charming, and peppy. Here was a guy who wasn’t afraid to speak hard truths, and who displayed knowledge of the policy issues–especially on entitlements. But the moment of the debate, the moment that will be talked about should he defy expectations and go on to win the nomination, was when he refused to raise his hand at the behest of the moderator. This demonstrated conviction, showed he was able to stand up for his principles, that he was a man who valued substance, a leader rather than a follower, and somebody who is running a different kind of campaign. In short, today Thompson was everything that conservatives had hoped they’d be getting when he announced his candidacy.   

This past Sunday, Republican presidential candidates took part in debates hosted by Univision in Miami. The following candidates attended: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.

FactCheck.org did an analysis of the debate and found some incorrect and/or misleading statements by the following candidates:

• Mike Huckabee
• Mitt Romney
• Rudy Giuliani

See what Fact Check found.