This is the sort of diplomacy that maintains my suspicion of the Kremlin.

Russia has cited the exacerbation of separatist movements having a legal leg to stand on, if Kosovo is granted independence from Serbia as a key reason for opposing Kosovo independence. I agree with that.

However, when it comes to Abkhazia and South Ossetia:

The lower house, or State Duma, said President Vladimir Putin and the government should ‘consider the question of the advisability of recognising the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.’

The non-binding motion said that Western recognition of the independence of Kosovo from Russian ally Serbia had ripped up international rules regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The two provinces of northern Georgia broke away from central government control during wars in the early 1990s that saw the mass expulsion of ethnic Georgians by the ethnic Abkhaz and Ossetians.

There is not a great deal of difference to my mind between the two scenarios. Russia wants it both ways and the credibility I was granting the Kremlin on their stance on Kosovo was wasted.

Review by Michael Averko

Review also found at Siberian Light

The thought of a re-ignited Cold War can send a chill down some people’s spines. “The New Cold War” (Carroll & Graf, New York, 2007) is about a different kind of Cold War. It’s primarily about Western lobbying efforts to establish influence in the former Communist bloc and Russia’s opposition to it. The book’s secondary theme deals with the pipeline politics involving the former Soviet Union and the West. Blended in are some personal accounts by author Mark MacKinnon. His prose is crisp and easy to follow.

The book starts off with a “Dramatis Personae” section, providing a brief description of the involved lead players and organizations. In that segment, issue can be taken with the characterization of Vojislav Kostunica as a “previously anonymous lawyer, who Madeleine Albright convinced the Serbs to rally around” (a point contradicted by Doug Schoen on page 48 of chapter 3). Albright was never in such a position to influence Serb public opinion. Among Serbs, she has been generally viewed as having a bias against them. If anything, Albright championed Zoran Djindjic, who isn’t mentioned in the Dramatis Personae segment. As per my numerous Serb contacts in Serbia and elsewhere, as well as my own research of the man, Kostunica was relatively well known in Serbia before his democratic challenge to Slobodan Milosevic. This prior knowledge of him includes academics outside of Serbia, who study that country. Before Milosevic’s political fall, Kostunica’s accomplishments include his translation of the “Federalist Papers” into Serbian.

Continue reading Book Review: “The New Cold War”…

Georgia’s president made a decisive move today by announcing his resignation after setting in motion the actions for elections in either the Spring or Fall of 2008 - the choice of which will be made by popular referendum.

Saakashvili has removed the tension both at home and geopolitically. The state of emergency will be ended earlier than planned, quelling outcry by western governments. The political tension between Georgia and Russia has been eased, leaving Russia with nothing to act on and not much to say. The concerns of Georgia’s citizens about the state of democracy in Georgia are much relieved. Saakashvili will obviously run for President next year against an opposition candidate (or candidates) and this move also telepaths his confidence in regaining his post.

Mikhail Saakashvili should be lauded for taking steps to defuse the situation and allow everyone to cool down, rather than risk extending and increasing the anger and violence seen over the past several days.

If we boil what is happening in Georgia down to its lowest common denominators, we are looking at basically three competing interests:

1) The current government, headed by President Mikheil Saakashvili. While aggressive in quelling resistance to government, Saakashvili has been very successful in weeding out government corruption and growing Georgia economically. His anti-corruption stand is what gained him 95% of the popular vote and placed him in the presidency. He had previously served in posts, which enabled him to expose corruption in the Justice Ministry and other government organizations. Saakashvili is pro-western.

2) A couple of “opposition parties” in Georgia. One being led by the son of a former President, who was ousted and exiled for his overarching dictatorial and erratic behavior. Konstantine Gamsakhurdia leads a political party in Georgia , having returnedfrom Switzerland in 2004. Gamsakhurdia’s party enjoys support from about 6% of the population.

3) The Russian government. The Kremlin benefits a great deal from any activity in Georgia, which makes the case for Russia to assist in some way - which usually means troops. Keep in mind that there are still Russian troops in Georgia, scheduled to be removed this year. Removing the remaining troops from Georgia will complete the removal of Russian influence in Georgian politics overall. It also weakens Russia’s position with regards to the South Ossetian and Abkhazian secessions.

Continue reading Georgia on my mind…

Today, Russia is declaring that the Georgian government is in shambles and the people of Georgia deserve better (also note Russia wants Georgia back in the Federation). This is on the eve of having to pull the last Russian troops out of Georgia. The thing I find most interesting is the Georgian President is pretty certain that Russian Special Services is involved in the unrest happening today in Tbilisi.

Remember how it used to be, back in the good old days?

A government neighboring Russia would be having “internal trouble” and Russia would rush in to help stabilize the country. In this manner, truth and just prevailed and Russia would stay and “help” for a few decades - because the people of that country deserve better. Prior to WWII, this happened to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, part of Poland, part of Finland, part of Ukraine and Romania, part of Germany, part of Czechoslovakia, the Crimea, the Kurils, and maybe a few others I can’t think of.

This would not be unheard of, since the RSS has been found in recent years stirring up trouble in several other former soviet republics. Azerbaijan, Chechnya, Uzbekistan, and the Ukraine are examples. To my way of thinking, this is emblematic of Russian tactics since 1922. You cause a problem in order to have an excuse to send in troops to quell the problem and then you just stay and take over.

In mid-1989 - just before the Berlin wall came down - as a Russian area specialist, I gave an assessment of glastnost to my bosses. In that assessment I stated that in 20 years, the principles glastnost espoused would be all but forgotten. Well, Russia was becoming everybody’s friend back then and guys like me were chided and called alarmist.

It is interesting to look back on Putin’s consolidation of power by getting rid of direct elections for governors; government suppression and harassment of the press; ballistic missile proliferation; theater-scale military exercises with China, and a myriad other things in the past several years and then remember that our Secretary of State is a Russian area specialist.