This election cycle has a lot more happening - and probably equally important happenings - than whether we end up with McCain, Obama, or Clinton.

Thirty-five of the 100 senate seats are being contested with 33 of those being regular, six-year term elections. We currently have a democratic party controlled senate, but what is the chance of turning that around?

Twenty-three Republican seats and 12 Democratic seats are up for grabs, which tends to bode better for a continuation, if not a strengthening of Democratic party control in the Senate - or does it?

Let’s take a look at the toss-up states:

Louisiana

Mary Landrieu will be defending her senate seat this cycle and Louisiana is not the same politically since Hurricane Katrina. The utter failure of the elected officials at both the state and local levels, most of which are Democrats, combined with the fact that a lot of the residents of areas hard hit have not returned to Louisiana, could make a difference in how this race turns out. She is being opposed by a guy named John Kennedy, who switched parties to oppose her as a Republican.

Colorado

Wayne Allard is retiring and that is probably a good thing. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer - a conservative.

New Hampshire

This is John Sununu’s seat. He is opposed by 3 or 4 Democrats, but his major opposition will come from Jeanne Shaheen, the former Governor.

New Mexico

Pete Domenici is calling it quits. Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are vying for that seat, as is Democrat Tom Udall.

Minnesota

Norm Coleman will be defending his seat against Democratic party candidates Al Franken, Mike Ciresi, and Jim Cohen.

Virginia

John Warner is retiring. You’ve got two former Governors running. The Republican Jim Gilmore and the Democrat Mark Warner.

Oregon

Gordon Smith is running for re-election, but has to defend his seat from Democrats Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick. Smith has a good approval rate, but may be a target for a couple of groups he has not made happy over the past few years.

There are a couple of other incumbent races that could go either way, but are less likely to change parties than these.

Nebraska is worth keeping an eye on with the retirement of Chuck Hagel and no clear front runner developing out of the furball.

The Senate is currently 49-49 and 2. So any one of these races could be a tipping point with regards to judicial nominations, the war, the economy, and a myriad other issues we are bound to face coming into the new decade. I’ll soon post my breakdown of the 20-odd contentious races for US house seats.

Iraqis took to the streets to ring in 2008.

Photo: AFP

FIRECRACKERS and machine-gun fire echoed over the Iraqi capital hours before midnight on Monday as partygoers put aside fears of suicide bombers and gunmen to bring in the new year.

Young men in fashionably ripped jeans and gelled hair crowded into restaurants and parties, some carrying black plastic bags hiding cans of beer.

I hope 2008 brings them peace and stability.

Yeah - it’s like that.

Analyzing Ron Paul

This data about the Ron Paul 2008 presidential campaign was compiled over the course of a months-long, peer-reviewed scientific study of finances, poll results, Web 2.0, and other pertinent data. (To scale.)

I am a FredHead - it’s simple really. I’m tired.

I’m tired of flip-flop candidates - they are for a path to citizenship, using a delusional guest worker program no more enforceable than the 14 guest worker programs already in existence. They are for extending benefits and tuition rights to illegal immigrants. They shield people here illegally from prosecution and deportation. Then, when they need Republican votes - they have had their “come to Jesus” and promise to be good boys on illegal immigration. McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee.

I’m tired of weak tea rhetoric about why we need more federal government intervention in our lives. Whether it be abortion, education, or government health care. I am tired of politicians taking away my community’s voice in the debate. McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee.

I’m tired of outright lies to get my vote. Rudy - you are pro-choice, anti-gun, and supported liberal Mario Cuomo instead of someone from your own party. Stop telling people how conservative you are. McCain - you are not a conservative. You hyphenate your name with congress’ most liberal member to open the borders. You support embryonic stem cell research with our tax dollars, you think affirmative action is ok. Mitt - you’ve been successful in probably the most liberal state in the Union. This is mostly because you have spent years pandering to the left. Stop telling people how conservative you are. Huckabee - Conservative, Tax Friendly, tough on illegal immigration, right? No, Mike is a tax-raising, advocate of illegal immigrant college tuition with no foreign policy experience.

In direct contrast - Fred been consistent on:

• abortion
• prioritizing the national debt
• balanced budget as a constitutional issue
• ending discriminatory selection practices for jobs, school, etc.
• commerce clause is not a federal regulations blank check
• tort reform
• school choice
• oil dependency and alternative fuels
• Free trade
• foreign policy beneficial to American interests
• 2nd amendment
• national security
• illegal immigration
• social security
• tax reform
• welfare and welfare overhaul

If the question is who to vote for in 2008, the only clear answer is Fred Thompson. You boys talk Fred’s talk, but you can’t walk Fred’s walk. I’m tired of watching you try.

The Fred File liveblogged the Presidential debate, with additional video blogging from Mary Matalin:

And Fred Thompson hit a home run today…

Jim Geraghty:

Asked for a show of hands on global warming, Thompson finally stands up. “I’m not doing any hand shows today.” A few folks applaud.

Fred: You gonna give me a minute to answer it?

Moderator: No.

Fred: Then I’m not gonna answer it.

Chuck Todd:

Fred Thompson is easily having his best debate; the format suits him well; it’s very issue oriented and doesn’t allow for too many back-n-forths and gives Fred a chance to shine. Contrary to his actor background, the guy loves to get into the weeds on certain issues and this debate format is working well for him.

Rich Lowry:

Judging by This Debate So Far Romney’s main threat in Iowa should be Fred Thompson.

Mark Hemingway:

Great Answer by Thompson…about injecting more choice and market forces into education. Seriously, it’s like Thompson came to the debate in Des Moines today to do two things: Kick butt and chew gum. And it appears he’s all out of gum.

Jonathan Martin:

In an obvious effort to diminish Huck, Fred gets off a line he wants Iowans to chew on in the weeks ahead:

Citing a face-off with America’s enemies, Thompson asks: “Who do you want sitting on our side representing you?

“That ought to be who you elect president.”

Marc Ambinder:

Fred Thompson was smart, funny, irascible and consistent, and probably helped his standing here. He even got in a good dig at Romney.

Philip Klein:

Fred Thompson was the only candidate who stood out. He was funny, charming, and peppy. Here was a guy who wasn’t afraid to speak hard truths, and who displayed knowledge of the policy issues–especially on entitlements. But the moment of the debate, the moment that will be talked about should he defy expectations and go on to win the nomination, was when he refused to raise his hand at the behest of the moderator. This demonstrated conviction, showed he was able to stand up for his principles, that he was a man who valued substance, a leader rather than a follower, and somebody who is running a different kind of campaign. In short, today Thompson was everything that conservatives had hoped they’d be getting when he announced his candidacy.   

This week, the drama on the island begins to escalate as interesting events unfold:

Blue Team - Alliances begin to form

Hillary feels the heat with several Blue Team inhabitants accusing her of being no different than President Bush. That should be something the Red Team responds to, but no word yet on that. Hillary is also experiencing questions of her integrity, as her campaign has given her an unfair advantage in Town Hall meetings, by having questions planted in the audiences.

There is no chance she’ll be voted off the island anytime soon - but she is definitely a target of a Blue Team alliance.

Barak seems to be untouchable just now, and his current alliance with John Edwards against Hillary seems to be working in his favor. Will the promise of a new Camelot secure him the nomination?

Judgment (pronounced Judge-Jah-Ment) Joe Biden is focused on something, it seems. He seems the most likely one t be voted off next, but he is known for his tenacity.

On the Red Team, the drama seems acute.

Giuliani is the clear front runner, but have the tables turned because of the Kerik indictment?

Romney - Mitt is sounding strong. However, there are some serious challenges to him. Some people are shattered by the thought that a Latter Day Saint might be president. In Florida, Giuliani is sure to call Mitt a Yankee, ignoring the fact that he is also a Yankee. I have heard that some people in Florida don’t like Yankees.

John McCain accused Giuliani of poor judgment, but Rudy wasn’t having any - reminding John that the Keating 5 was not that long ago (it was actually pretty long ago in dog years).

Thompson - is getting the pieces in place that could turn him into a threat to Rudy. Will his participation in McCain - Feingold be a detriment?

Huckabee is fighting mad about National Right to Life’s endorsement of Fred Thompson - just as he was fighting mad about Pat Robertson’s endorsement of Giuliani. It might be the beginning of the Rodney Dangerfield campaign strategy. Uncle Huck is the best bet to be voted off the island next - stay tuned and watch it happen.

There is also an inhabitant named Ron Paul - we have heard a bit about him.

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The next immunity challenge is November 15 - Democratic Presidential Debates in Las Vegas. It is quite possible that what happens in these debates will not stay in Vegas.

Stay Tuned and watch the drama unfold! Who is next to leave the island? Find out what happens the next time - “The tribe has spoken”!